The following licenses are free software licenses, but are not compatible with the GNU GPL.. Affero General Public License version 1 (). The Affero General Public License is a free software license, copyleft, and incompatible with the GNU GPL. The easiest propellant to manufacture is liquid carbon dioxide. It can be produced from the Martian atmosphere using just high pressure ( kPa) with no cryogenic cooling needed (a 30 horsepower pump will do, requiring 25 kW, or 80 kilowatt hours per metric ton). The Lunar Module was an iconic spacecraft which carried two-man crews to and from the Moon's surface during NASA's Apollo Program of the s and '70s. Along with the Saturn 5 rocket and the Apollo Command and Service Modules (CSM), the Lunar Module is the third of the trinity of vehicles which made the moonlandings possible. Search the world's information, including webpages, images, videos and more. Google has many special features to help you find exactly what you're looking for. First interstellar flights. Starships that must travel centuries and contain generations descended from the original crews. Other planets of other stars.
Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure. It was first introduced in the four short stories — which would later be collected as the novel Foundation. Axioms Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.
Asimov used the analogy of a gas: An observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but with the kinetic theory can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy.
Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire , which numbered one quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon , established two axioms: Ebling Mis added these axioms That there would be no fundamental change in the society That human reactions to stimuli would remain constant.
Golan Trevize in Foundation and Earth added this axiom that humans are the only sentient intelligence in the galaxy. Limitations The fact that Seldon established a Second Foundation of mental-science adepts to oversee his Seldon Plan might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mule , had the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not and could not predict the appearance of the Mule himself.
The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful. Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: In Asimov's Foundation series, humans form the only sentient race that developed in the entire Milky Way Galaxy.
Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans. Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions. However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities: However, statistically two or more alien races might evolve in the same galaxy, leading them into inevitable conflict. The fighting in this other galaxy would only end when one race emerged the victor, and after the prolonged conflict with other races, would have developed an aggressive and expansionist mindset.
In contrast, humans had never encountered another sentient species in the Milky Way Galaxy, so they never felt greatly compelled to expand to other galaxies, but instead to fight other humans over control of the Milky Way. Eventually, such an aggressive alien race would expand from galaxy to galaxy, and try to invade the Milky Way Galaxy.
Specifically exemplifying this theory we find Asimov's Solarians: Asimovian psychohistory and similar concepts in other fiction Legend of the Galactic Heroes November — The concept of psychohistory appears in this novel by Yoshiki Tanaka. Hyperion — In Dan Simmons 's novel, the AI civilization is capable of statistically predicting future events to a very high degree of accuracy. Flynn creates competing groups of psychohistorians. Ghost Rider May — In issue 1, a group of AIs predict that human society and therefore the global network in which the AIs exist will crash in One of them mentions that Asimov conceived the idea of such a mathematical model.
Deep Space Nine — In the episode " Statistical Probabilities ", a think tank uses mathematics to predict the future in a manner likely to be a reference to Asimov.
Preserver — In this novel by William Shatner , the science of psychohistory is used and mentioned by name by scholars at outpost Memory Alpha. Memory Alpha was shown in the Star Trek: Original Series episode " The Lights of Zetar ", although psychohistory was never mentioned in the episode.
Psychohistorical Crisis — Donald Kingsbury 's novel re-imagines the world of Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, set after the establishment of the Second Empire. Timelines — In the 'Shattered Glass' universe, Megatron uses math to predict the future in a reference to Asimov. Fantastic Four January — In issue , Mister Fantastic reveals his real reason for supporting the superhero registration act which prompted the Civil War: Mister Fantastic's application of this science indicates to him that billions will die in escalating conflicts unless the act becomes law.
House of Suns — This novel by Alastair Reynolds features a device called the "Universal Actuary", which aims to predict the future of civilisations in a manner very similar to psychohistory. As the limits of slower-than-light travel prevent any interstellar civilisations from lasting very long, one of its most important uses is to determine how much longer a given civilisation will last. Fallout 4 — In the video game developed by Bethesda Softworks , a robot dubbed P.
Predictive Analytical Machine uses algorithms to make predictions of the future.
However, her capabilities are limited due to the complexity of human free will and she has to adjust her algorithms constantly, especially when the player character shows up. Outside fiction Polymath Adolphe Quetelet developed in the 19th century what he called "social physics".
Quetelet studied the statistical laws underlying the behaviour of what he called "average man". Some individuals and groups, inspired by Asimov's psychohistory, seriously explore the possibility of a working psychohistory not unlike the one imagined by Asimov—a statistical study of history that could help in the formulation of some "theory of history" and perhaps become a tool of historical prediction.
REALISTIC DESIGNS N-Q
Complexity theory, an offshoot of chaos mathematics theory, explored by Stuart Kauffman in his books "At Home in the Universe" and "Redefining the Sacred" cover the concept of statistical modeling of sociological evolutions. Xenakis, where he proposes, "Generational Dynamics is a historical methodology that analyzes historical events through the flow of generations, and uses the analysis to forecast future events by comparing today's generational attitudes to those of the past". Essentially, generations immediately after a major crisis event civil war, world war will be unwilling to live through such events again and will be risk-averse.
Generations after them may well be aware of previous crisis events, but will be more risk-tolerant, as they have not been exposed to the crisis themselves. Xenakis states that this allows one to predict future crisis events by analyzing the current generation's outlooks. The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations - his science is called cliodynamics.
Nathan Eagle and Alex Pentland among others have developed useful techniques for predicting human behavior through statistical analysis of smartphone data.
At the 67th science-fiction world convention in Montreal, Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in Economics, mentioned Hari Seldon, a central character in Foundation who was a psychohistorian, as his inspiration to study Economics since it is the closest thing to Psychohistory, according to P. The Living Earth Simulator , a platform of the proposed FuturICT project, aims to simulate social and economic developments on a global scale in order to anticipate and predict global phenomena, like for example financial crisis.
For similar ideas see Dan Braha's work on predicting the behavior of global civil unrest. This work demonstrates, based on historical records and mathematical modeling, the existence of universal patterns of collective unrest across countries and regions.
The evolving field of behavioral economics embodies elements of Asimov's psychohistory.
Looking at several revealed conspiracies, the estimated chance of a conspiracy being busted is 4 parts per million per year per conspirator, combining history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people. This section has articles on many mathematical techniques of predicting human behavior, and explicitly compares them to Asimov's psychohistory. In role-playing games Psychohistory appears in the Traveller science-fiction role-playing game , released in The alien race known as the Hivers use extensive manipulation of other cultures based on psychohistorical data to achieve their own ends.
Rumors ascribe the assassination of the Third Imperium's Emperor Strephon to a Hiver manipulation based on psychohistorical data indicating the eventual fall of the Third Imperium. Humans in the setting have also attempted to use psychohistory, but with less skill or success; the Psionic Suppressions which turned public opinion within the human Imperium against those with paranormal mental abilities, forcing them to go into hiding resulted, unknown to most, from an experiment in psychohistory that got out of control and went much farther than the experimenters intended.
Literary influences Some literary critics have described Asimov's psychohistory as a reformulation of Karl Marx 's theory of history historical materialism , though Asimov denied any direct influence. Arguably, Asimov's psychohistory departs significantly from Marx's general theory of history based on modes of production as distinct from Marx's model of the capitalist economy, where "natural laws" work themselves out with "iron necessity" in that psychohistory is predictive if only in the sense of involving precisely stated probabilities , and in that psychohistory is extrapolated from individual psychology and even from physics.
Psychohistory also has echoes of modernization theory and of work in the social sciences that by the s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot. This topic is called reliability theory or reliability analysis in engineering, and duration analysis or duration modeling in economics or event history analysis in sociology.
I came up with the word because John Campbell and I were discussing the course I was to take in the Foundation series once I came to him with my initial idea on the subject. However, I was so intent on history, thanks to Gibbon, that I could think of nothing but psychohistory. In any case, Campbell was enthusiastic about the idea and we were off and running.
I modeled my concept of psychohistory on the kinetic theory of gases , which I had been beat over the head with in my physical chemistry classes. The molecules making up gases moved in an absolutely random fashion in any direction in three dimensions and in a wide range of speeds. Nevertheless, one could fairly describe what those motions would be on the average and work out the gas laws from those average motions with an enormous degree of precision. So I applied that notion to human beings.
There were two conditions that I had to set up in order to make it work, and they were not chosen carelessly. I picked them in order to make psychohistory more like kinetic theory. First, I had to deal with a large number of human beings, as kinetic theory worked with a large number of molecules. Neither would work for small numbers. It is for that reason that I had the Galactic Empire consist of twenty-five million worlds, each with an average population of four billion.
That meant a total human population of one hundred quadrillion. So it was necessary to suppose that human beings in general did not know what the predictions of psychohistory were and therefore would not tailor their activities to suit. The kinetic theory assumes that gases are made up of nothing but molecules, and psychohistory will only work if the hosts of intelligence are made up of nothing but human beings. In other words, the presence of aliens with non-human intelligence might well bollix the works.
This situation may actually develop in future books of the Foundation series, but so far I have stayed clear of non-human intelligences in my Galactic Empire partly because Campbell and I disagreed fundamentally on what their role would be if they existed and since neither of us would give in.
Eventually, I thought that my psycho history would fade out of human consciousness because the term came to be used by psychiatrists for the study of the psychiatric background of individuals such as Woodrow Wilson, Sigmund Freud, or Adolf Hitler who had some pronounced effect on history.
Naturally, since I felt a proprietary interest in the term psychohistory as a predictive study of large faceless masses of human beings, I resented the new use of the word.
But then as time went on, I grew more philosophical. After all, it might well be that there could be no analogy drawn between molecules and human beings and that there could be no way of predicting human behavior. Indeed, the question of whether psychohistory can be worked out or not lies at the center of the novel I have recently completed, Prelude to Foundation, in which Hari Seldon the founder of psychohistory is portrayed as a young man who is in the process of trying to devise the science.
The concept is more important than I am. It reads as follows, in full: Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratories have found that there is a similarity between group behavior and certain physical phenomena. To do the analysis, they assigned certain physical characteristics such as level of excitement, fear, and size of the crowd to model parameters. The interaction of the crowd closely paralleled the turbulent flow equations. Although the analysis cannot predict exactly what a group will do, it reportedly does help determine the most probable consequence of a given event.
However, here is the summary of the article as given at the beginning: To a good approximation, this probability of generalization i decays exponentially with this distance, and ii does so in accordance with one of two metrics, depending on the relation between the dimensions along with the stimuli vary.
These empirical regularities are mathematically derivable from universal principles of natural kinds and probabilistic geometry that may, through evolutionary internalization, tend to govern the behaviors of all sentient organisms. I am also concerned, suddenly, that psychohistory may be developed within the next century. I placed its development 20, years in the future.